A new poll ahead of the crucial Senedd elections in May reveals a ‘two horse race’ between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK - as Labour support plummets.

A new ITV Cymru Wales opinion poll has revealed that Plaid Cymru is leading the polls in Wales for the upcoming Senedd election with Labour falling even further behind,

The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, has revealed that Labour’s predicted vote share for the Senedd is now at its lowest at 14%, whilst Plaid Cymru are continuing to lead the polls with 30%. Reform UK is on 29% of the current vote share.

The Senedd (Welsh Parliament) general election will be held on May 7, 2026.

The poll also highlights that support for Keir Starmer has plummeted, with 62% of those surveyed believing he is doing badly as Prime Minister.

Senedd voting intention (YouGov MRP Model):

  • Plaid 30% (n/c)
  • Reform 29% (+4)
  • Labour 14% (-4)
  • Conservatives 11% (-2)
  • Lib Dem 6% (-1)
  • Green 6% (+1)
  • Other 4% (+2)

Dr Jac Larner’s Seat Projection:

  • Plaid Cymru - 38
  • Reform UK - 37
  • Labour - 11
  • Conservatives - 6
  • Lib Dem - 3
  • Green - 1

Plaid Cymru Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth MS said: “Be under no illusion: the choice at the next election is clear – it is between a divisive Reform party that don't care about Wales and would privatise our NHS, or a pro-Wales Plaid Cymru government that will stand up for Wales and deliver real change for the better for our communities.

“Labour’s support is falling because voters want change.

“People are overwhelmingly looking to Plaid Cymru for a better future for our country – one that is driven by Welsh values, that will deliver real results and stand up for fairness for Wales from Westminster.

“We’re urging everyone who want to see the right kind of change – to back the only plausible choice for a positive, pro-Wales government by backing Plaid Cymru.”