A new poll shows Plaid Cymru is surging ahead in the polls in Wales ahead of Reform UK for the upcoming Senedd election, with Labour falling even further behind into fourth place, an explosive new You Gov opinion poll has revealed.

The latest poll conducted by YouGov for Cardiff University has revealed that Labour’s predicted vote share for the Senedd has now fallen to 10%, while Plaid Cymru continue to lead with 33% (+3%). Reform UK’s support – at 30% – remains unchanged since the September ITV Wales YouGov poll.

The poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, has revealed that Plaid Cymru's predicted vote share for the Senedd is now at its highest at 37%. Reform is second at 23%.

Labour has slipped even further behind than our last poll in September with 10%, suggesting the lowest popularity the party has had in Wales since devolution began.

The Senedd (Welsh Parliament) general election will be held on 7 May 2026.

Senedd voting intention:

(YouGov MRP Model)

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said:"This latest explosive poll confirms that this May’s Senedd election is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform.

“More and more people are realising they face a choice between two very different futures, and are choosing to back Plaid Cymru’s positive vision for Wales.

“That’s because we are the only party that will always stand up for Wales, with new leadership and serious plans to fix our NHS and help people with the cost-of-living crisis. Reform is focused on chasing headlines and getting Nigel Farage closer to Number 10 - not on Wales’s future.

“There is real momentum behind Plaid Cymru, but we are taking nothing for granted. After decades in charge, Labour is finished, but the future of Wales is still to be written.

“We will fight for every vote, because if people want to stop Reform from dragging Wales backwards and instead choose hope, ambition and a government that puts Wales first, that change can only come by electing a Plaid Cymru government and by voting Plaid on 7 May.”