A new Senedd poll has shown the Wales election on May 7 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK – with Plaid Cymru maintaining the lead. Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan is predicted to lose her seat.

The latest poll conducted by YouGov for Cardiff University shows that Plaid Cymru continue to lead with 33% with Reform UK’s second on 27.

The Senedd (Welsh Parliament) general election will be held on May 7.

Senedd voting intention (YouGov MRP model):

· Plaid Cymru 33

· Reform UK 27

· Welsh Labour 13

· Wales Green Party 12

· Welsh Conservatives 7

· Welsh Liberal Democrats 5

Others 4

Senedd seat share (YouGov MRP model):

· Plaid Cymru 43

· Reform UK 30

· Welsh Labour 12

· Wales Green Party 10

· Welsh Conservatives 1

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: "Yet another poll confirms that this May’s Senedd election is very much a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK with Plaid Cymru in pole position to offer Wales the new leadership we need and to stop Reform UK.

"Wales now faces a stark choice between two futures.”