The number of people aged 85 and over is forecast to rise by 41% in the next decade in Carmarthenshire and social care spending would need go up by tens of millions of pounds, a report has stated.

The growing number of elderly people came at a time, it said, when the county’s working age population was forecast to fall by just under 2%.

The council, which is responsible for social care, is planning for these demographic changes by increasing residential care bed capacity among other things.

A report before the authority’s health and social services scrutiny committee said its social care bill for people aged over 75 was expected to increase from around £94 million in 2024-25 to nearly £133 million in 2034-35.

It added that spending on younger adults who needed care was forecast to rise from just under £75 million to just over £100 million in the same period. This was partly due to younger adults with learning disabilities living longer.

While longer living, particularly longer healthy living, is positive, providing care for those who need help will have increasing implications for councils in terms of budgets and staff recruitment.

Addressing committee members on June 9, Cllr Jane Tremlett, cabinet member for health and social services, said the rising numbers “potentially have significant financial consequences” for the authority. She added that robust, long-term planning was needed.

Nursing beds in residential homes are for people, for example with dementia, who need more intensive support.

However, the funding that comes for these nursing beds from Hywel Dda University Health Board was £3.4 million in 2023-24, just £82,000 – or 2.4% – more than 10 years previously, the report said, despite the frail elderly population increasing by 30% and costs soaring by around 50%.

The meeting heard concerns that some elderly people weren’t being looked after according to the level of their need.

Jonathan Morgan, interim head of community services, said discussions about this funding were taking place between the council and health board.

Joanna Jones, head of integrated services, said the funding data “speaks for itself”. She said: “I think the information in the report would suggest that we have got individuals in residential care settings that are probably not in the right place.”

A big driver of increased social care costs is wage growth. The cost of looking after adults with physical, learning and mental disabilities and also looked-after children can be considerable.

The council has proposed several measures for the next five years to address the various pressures, such as increasing residential bed capacity and numbers of in-house domiciliary carers, developing different types of accommodation to suit people as they age, and encouraging healthy living.

The authority also aims to expand a service called Shared Lives, which consists of carers who help people with things like autism, learning difficulties and dementia.

Kate Morgan, head of service within the communities department, said Shared Lives placements were cheaper than residential care “but also better for individuals where it’s right for them”.