Carmarthenshire has 1,600 fewer school pupils and 300 more teaching staff than it did five years ago and the “rationalisation” of the school footprint “needs to be expedited”, a senior council officer said.

Aneirin Thomas, head of education and inclusion services, said modelling on the “possible rationalisation” of 10 schools found education costs could be cut significantly and up to £3 million extra diverted into “receiving” schools.

Predominantly rural Carmarthenshire has a relatively large number of schools and many are in financial deficit. With birthrates declining pupil numbers are expected to diminish further and, because school funding is mainly based on the number of pupils on a school’s roll, the financial implications are serious.

Addressing the council’s governance and audit committee, although he was on leave that day, Mr Thomas said 44% of the county’s schools were in deficit.

Referring to the potential of “school rationalisation”, he said: “I think that needs to be expedited because that’s one way we can alleviate the pressure.”

The council later said the modelling work did not necessarily mean school closure, and that the exercise did not mean any specific schools had been identified.

A report before the committee said the budget outlook had improved in recent weeks but that schools were still forecast to overspend collectively by £11 million in 2025-26. Add that £11 million to existing deficits and the overall school deficit position is estimated to be just over £16 million at the end of 2025-26.

Mr Thomas said school funding pressures were well known before the Covid pandemic and that extra Welsh Government funding had masked the situation for a while.

He said 395 schools in Wales were in deficit out of a total of just under 1,500, with more than half in Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan and 45% in Cardiff in the red.

Allan Carter, schools transformation and change manager, said Carmarthenshire primary schools had an average of 163 pupils each – the only one of Wales’ 10 largest authorities to have less than a 200 pupil-per-school average. A reduced school footprint, he said, would be a much more efficient footprint.

The council’s education department has been working with schools to address the situation after none of the ones which were predicted to be in deficit at the end of 2024-25 responded to a request to submit a recovery plan, according to the report.

Cllr Elwyn Williams said education overspending was the “biggest single threat” to the council’s financial stability. A suggestion had been made at a training session, he said, that three schools needed to be “put into special measures” to encourage the rest to “tow the line”.

Cllr Williams said with 300 extra teachers and teaching assistants employed since Covid it was “rubbish” to say school spending couldn’t be cut back.

“I think we need to come down like a tonne of bricks on our schools that are overspending,” he said.

David MacGregor, a lay committee member, said he shared some of Cllr Williams’ frustration and that it was obvious to him three years ago that action was needed.

He also acknowledged that improvements would take time: “This is an oil tanker that’s not going to turn quickly,” he said. “The whole of the council needs to come together to get a grip on this.”

The committee report said challenges faced by schools varied. It described secondary school Ysgol Emlyn, Newcastle Emlyn, as being as efficient as possible in managing staff and costs but that decreasing pupil numbers and its location were significant challenges. Without rapid decisions, said the report, the school could face an “irrecoverable financial situation” by 2026-27.

The report said secondary school Ysgol Bro Dinefwr, Ffairfach, was committed to reducing its deficit but could not afford to educate pupils bilingually. Options on the two schools are due to be presented to cabinet this autumn.

Cllr Kim Broom said it was a complex issue and that she would like modelling to be done on declining birthrates. But she added: “Without taking decisive action nothing is going to change, unless something quite dramatic happens. Taking a school into ‘special measures’ would certainly be focusing attention on that.”

She also welcomed financial training offered to headteachers and said more was needed for school governors as a school’s budget was their responsibility.

Cllr Alex Evans said he believed the Welsh Government should “step up”, and that comparing Carmarthenshire’s primary school profile with large urban councils like Cardiff, Swansea and Wrexham was unfair.

Cllr Evans said parents often chose smaller schools as their children needed additional support and that closing any of them risked more pupils being home-educated, in turn reducing Welsh Government pupil funding.

Lay committee member Karen Jones said education was a very emotive subject and that she welcomed the support being given to schools. “It’s obviously a very difficult path ahead,” she said.

The Plaid Cymru-Independent led council is undertaking a county-wide school catchment review and has assessed the viability of all its primary schools. The committee report said “a number (of primaries) have been identified for review and this work is being progressed at pace”.

The Welsh Government said the education sector in Wales would receive an extra £262.5 million in 2025-26, although this including additional funding handed out in 2024-25. Councils were also getting an extra 4.5% more money on average, it said, this year.

A Welsh Government spokeswoman said: “We recognise the significant pressures schools and local authorities are under and we will continue to work with the sector to ensure the best possible outcomes for our learners.”